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揭示1970—2022年全球航运碳排放的时空演变特征，为航运业低碳转型提供科学依据。基于EDGAR v8.0数据集，结合Theil-Sen Median趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验分析全球航运碳排放的时空变化，同时，利用全球内陆河流数据和港口碳排放数据，评估河运及主要港口的碳排放特征。结果表明：全球航运碳排放量整体呈现上升趋势，与全球贸易增长和经济发展有着直接关系；亚洲、欧洲和北美沿海地区碳排放高值集中，中国东部沿海、东南亚（马六甲海峡）、地中海地区尤为突出；2020年受COVID-19大流行导致的航运需求下降影响，全球航运碳排放量较2019年显著减少；2022年中国河运碳排放量达8 730万t，占全球总排放量的51.3%，成为主要贡献者；受环境风险及经营成本增加的限制，俄罗斯“北方海路”碳排放量在1970—2022年呈持续下降趋势；新加坡港是全球航运碳排放量最高的港口，中国港口（如香港、深圳、舟山等）占据十大港口中的7席。建议在全球化背景下，世界各国及地区应加强国际合作，共享技术和信息，促进全球碳减排，推动航运业绿色转型。未来需关注后疫情时代的碳排放动态及高分辨率数据需求。
Abstract：In this study, we explored the spatiotemporal evolution of global shipping carbon emissions from 1970 to 2022, based on the EDGAR v8.0 dataset and using Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall testing. Inland river data and port-specific emission inventories were also used to evaluate carbon contributions from river transport and major global ports. We aimed to provide a scientific foundation to transform shipping into a low-carbon industry. Results show:(1) Overall global shipping carbon emissions increased significantly over the study period, reflecting the growth of international trade and economic development.(2) High-emission clusters were concentrated in the coastal areas of Asia, Europe,and North America, particularly in East China, the Strait of Malacca, and the Mediterranean region.(3) A notable decline in shipping carbon emissions occurred during 2019-2020 due to reduced shipping demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.(4) China accounted for 51.3% of global river transport emissions in 2022, driven by its extensive network of inland waterways(8.73×10~7t), while carbon emissions in the Russian Northern Sea Route declined persistently over the past 53 years due to environmental risks and rising operational costs.(5) The ports of Singapore emerged as the world's largest emitter, while seven Chinese ports, including Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Zhoushan, ranked among the top ten globally.Based on our analysis of spatiotemporal patterns of shipping carbon emissions, we recommend strengthening international cooperation, sharing technologies and information, promoting global carbon reduction,and driving green transformation of the shipping industry in the context of globalization. Going forward,attention should be paid to carbon emission dynamics in the post-pandemic era and the need for high-resolution data. This research provides a reference for formulating global shipping carbon reduction policies and offers new opportunities and directions for sustainable development of the global shipping industry.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.15928/j.1674-3075.202404180139
中图分类号:X322;F551
引用信息:
[1]熊广森,李金龙,杨帆,等.全球1970—2022年航运碳排放量：格局与演变[J].水生态学杂志,2026,47(03):106-115.DOI:10.15928/j.1674-3075.202404180139.
基金信息:
河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(QN2024008)
2025-06-30
2025-06-30
2025-06-30